Sean Osborne
Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs
sosborne@homelandsecurityus.com
This is a sequel and companion to my article entitled “World War IV” which was web published by the Northeast Intelligence Network on July 22, 2006. This date, as it happens, was just one month prior to the events I suspect will very shortly transpire. Background to both reports can be found at the end of this article and was originally web published by the Northeast Intelligence Network on January 31, 2006.
There is no mistaking the fact that Israel has lost the Phase I engagement of this war, which also unmistakably is a multi-phased war, long-planned in advance by the strategic chess masters in Iran. Phase I was initiated with the proxy abduction of Israeli soldiers by HAMAS and Hezbollah. These abductions were specifically planned to precipitate a major Israeli military offensive. The Iranian War Operations Plan worked flawlessly. Result: a two-front war for Israel with defeat in Lebanon to the north and a self-imposed stalemate in Gaza to the south. If you are an existential enemy of Israel, what’s not to like? How can you possibly be disheartened? In fact, these results embolden Israel’s enemies to move in for the kill as they deem it will be -- the destruction of the State of Israel and the “liberation” of Jerusalem.
In my opinion this result is due to the ‘perfect storm’ consisting in its many parts of the political ineptitude of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and the military ineptitude of Gen. Dan Halutz which were compounded and multiplied by the unwarranted interference of the US State Department, the office Xavier Solana of the European Union as well as the United Nations in the legitimate Israeli rights of self-defense and self-preservation in the face of unprecedented existential threats to the State of Israel made manifest by Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Islamofascist proxies.
With Israel having the current leadership and allies such as these, what have Israel’s enemies to fear?
The ‘on-the-ground’ fact is that Israeli military preparations for the Lebanon operation were abysmal from any perspective chosen to assess in any after-action report. Many of the IDF soldiers are lucky to have survived, and they are justifiably outraged at the result and the dishonorable retreat forced upon them after such hard fought battlefield gains were achieved. The invading IDF had no actionable intelligence of what they were going into; Hezbollah was a trained professional military force and not the ragtag Islamic mercenaries as was apparently briefed to the Israel commanders. It is my current understanding that IDF officers and non-commissioned officers alike disobeyed suicidal orders from clueless leadership in Israel. All of Israel is lucky the body count was as actually low as it was, particularly the tank corps. Hindsight being 20/20, most IDF units were ordered to engage Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC troops without the benefit of the "7 P's"
Proper Planning and Preparation Prevent Piss Poor Performance
It is also my opinion that these same IDF veterans’s will ensure Prime Minster Ehud Olmert's removal, and perhaps the retirement of Lt.Gen. Dan Halutz. Binyamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz are my choices to ride to Israel’s rescue at this point. Phase II of the Iranian war plan looms large and imminent and time’s a wastin’.
Phase II
I suspect that Phase II of this war will be vastly different, in both scope and end result. The Iranians and Syrians are as cocky as ever, even though the Israel Defense Forces did exact a very high toll from the Hezbollah/IRGC regular formations. However, Iran and Syria are convinced that Israel is easy pickings based upon the combat performance to date. They believe their strategic combat depth will outlast Israel's.
They are in for a very rude and abrupt re-awakening into to real world realities.
The Deputy Commander of the regular Iranian armed forces, Brigadier General Mohammed Reza Ashtiani, announced on16 August 2006, that large-scale Iranian war games would commence on 19 August 2006 and continue for an indefinite period of time. These military maneuvers are well underway, and I believe are the initiation of the Iranian Phase II battleplan.
The code name for the Iranian exercise is “The Blow of Zolfaghar.” “Zolfaghar” is the name given to the sword belonging to Imam Ali ibn Abu Talib during initial Islamic conquests at the Battles of Badr, Uhud and many other wars of Islamic conquest. Imam Ali is the man the Shi'a most highly revere as the first true Islamic Caliph after Muhammed.
The “Blow of Zolfaghar” operations were launched just two days prior to when Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad has stated the West would receive Iran's response to issues over its nuclear weapons program, and a not-so-veiled threat of a "light show" over Jerusalem, Israel. The date also coincides with the completely mythical "night flight" of Muhammed from Mecca to Jerusalem, then to Heaven and Hell and back to Mecca.
It has occurred to me that what the delusional sock-puppet Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad and his Ayatollah’s intend for August 21/22 is a strike which will ignite the entire Muslim world into uncontrollable rage against Israel. Reference the Hojjatieh’s self-defined mission in this regard at the link below this article. The strike I believe which is possible, if not probable, and intended specifically to achieve these goals would consist of Iranian agents or proxy activity executed to either significantly damage or destroy the Dome of the Rock on Jerusalem's Temple Mount – and then play Israel as the perpetrator.
World main stream media has been all too willing from the onset of this war to paint Israel as the aggressor, guilty of disproportionate response. There is no doubt that Israel is the nation that main stream world media as well as many people in this world most love to hate. Main stream media will not miss yet another opportunity to be Ahmadi-Nejad’s own personal sock-puppets; they’ve done a fine and dandy job of this up to this point.
I suspect this strike may occur within 72 hours from now. The purpose would be to precipitate an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran and Syria proper and re-ignite the war in Lebanon and in Gaza, thus creating a three or four front existential war for Israel.
Doomsday 101: Present Day Analysis
As eyes focus on Iran as they prepare for large-scale military exercises, their apolyptic vision for world domination and UN Security Council pressure over their nuclear ambitions, the following article by guest columnist John Livingston has never been more important to read. --Doug Hagmann
By John Livingston
johnlivingston@homelandsecurityus.com
19 August 2006: Everyone of us likes to think we are knowledgeable about something. It could be a sports team, hobby, fashion, money and markets, whatever. What about religion, specifically, the end of the world? Is this a topic just for whacko-s? Boring? Irrelevant? Religious beliefs have caused more death and destruction in the world than any other single factor in the history of mankind. End of the world beliefs have certainly resulted in the most irrational actions. People have sold everything they owned, spent money that they did not have, and quit their well-paying jobs, gone to live in caves, drank cyanide laced Kool-aide, and waited for some eartly invasion …all because of what they believed about the end of the world. Of course they have all been wrong so far. One day someone will probably be right. Or someone might simply make it happen.
You consider yourself a mentally stable person, not prone to decisions like those described above, believing such foolishness to be reserved for cult members or the insane. God exists, but you are a “sane religious person”. Or perhaps you might not be religious at all, and think that it is not important to know what anybody else believes. Think again. It is more vital now, than at any time in history, to be armed with this knowledge. Never before have there been so many, who have held such strong beliefs, that felt that they had an active part in the end times, who also possessed nuclear weapons. In that light, the won-lost record of your favorite sports team, or what the stock market is doing, seems trivial.
What do people believe? Christians have the books of Daniel, the Revelation, and scattered prophecies throughout the Old and New Testament that speak about the end of the world. Jews stick to the Old Testament. Islam likewise contains an end-time scenario and a reason for the world to end. It is much like Christianity’s, except it contains a few twists. Following is a short version of the Islamic apocalypse and why it matters that you understand it.
All Islamic beliefs are derived from two sources, the Qu’ran and the teachings of the Prophet Muhammad. Christianity and Islam both teach that the end will conclude with a Judgment Day that is preceded by many signs to strengthen the faithful and give the rebellious one last chance to repent. Muslims believe they are in the last days, because one of the signs is that they would be numerous on the earth, but that the world would be enjoying their wealth “like a man at a banquet”. Regardless of the current rise of Islam, centuries of wars have engrained in them that theirs is a repressed religion.
During the Last Days, mainstream Islam teaches that a great Muslim leader will arise called the Mahdi. (pronounced MAH-dee) A direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, this man is the Islamic messiah. His mission is to:
1) Unite all the Islamic faithful,
2) Wage a victorious war against the enemies of Islam, which will result in,
3) the “liberation of the Middle East” bringing peace and prosperity.
4) This will allow all Muslims to retire to the Holy Land.
Both Shia and Sunni Muslims believe he is on the earth today, but differ in the details. The President of Iran believes that he is on a divine mission to hasten the Mahdi’s appearing by perhaps beginning that war. One can look at the news today and consider the implications of what could happen if someone in his or any other position of power holds these beliefs. A non-Muslim would be unsafe anywhere in the Middle East, or the world for that matter, even a Christian Arab. In reality, a peace treaty with Israel or any non-Muslim state would be meaningless. Nothing short of fulfillment of the Mahdi’s mission is acceptable. In this case, religion is going to supersede politics. Christians believe that Israel will be invaded by an alliance of nations in the last days as prophesied by Ezekiel in chapters 38 and 39. Muslims are waiting for the great war waged by the Mahdi to liberate the Middle East. The same event in the eyes of a Christian could look quite different to a Muslim. An American Christian could see an unjust invasion, while a Muslim sees a fulfillment of end-time prophecy.
Many believe that Islam does not believe in Jesus, but this is not so. Muslims believe He was a prophet of God who was arrested, but did not die, and that the onlookers at the cross “were made to believe” it was Jesus who died. Muslims believe He was instead, taken to Heaven and is awaiting His role in last day events. More on Jesus in a moment.
After the Mahdi is victorious, he establishes Islamic rule in the Holy Land. This is when Islam believes the Anti-Christ will appear. He is called the Dajjal. Claiming to be God and appearing to have miraculous powers, he will wage war against all expressions of religion, and most of the people of the earth will follow him. The Dajjal will use his significant military might to begin to conquer the middle east which was previously united under the Mahdi. His reign lasts only 40 days, but is abruptly put to an end by the coming of…Jesus! That’s it? No.
Jesus will then speak to the world and convert everyone, especially Jews and Christians, to Islam, announcing it as the one true religion. He will then become the spiritual leader of a multi-national government, and live forty more years, have children, and die a natural death. That is the end, right? Not yet.
There is still the biblical invasion described in Ezekiel of Gog and Magog, except in Islam it is an invasion of the entire Middle East and happens after all these events. Jesus is still alive at this point, and prays for the deliverance of the land of Palestine. His prayer is heard, deliverance comes, and many of the world’s “unconverted”, will convert to Islam. Before this is fully completed however, Jesus dies.
Then comes the final Day of Judgment, when a great, mysterious creature appears out of the earth to warn the people that this is the end. A lot of terrible things happen at this point, the good are swept away and protected from the cataclysms, and everyone stands before God in Judgment to receive their eternal rewards.
A casual student of eschatology (religious study of the end of the world) will recognize many similarities between Christian and Islamic end-time scenarios. There is a critical difference however. Christian’s believe God loves everyone in the world, and desires to be reconciled to them through His Son. If you reject Him, He still reaches out to you. Muslims believe that one can only be “right with God” through Islam, (a way of living, not a person), and to challenge it, makes you worthy of being killed. Christianity is focused on a Person, and an individual’s relation to Him. The “Christian” Crusades, which are part of the Muslim-European problem still today, taught us that you can’t kill in the name of God and force someone to serve Him. Yet that is the threat we all are seeing unfold before our eyes. It would benefit all of us to educate ourselves, and to seriously consider the mindset of those with the enriched uranium.
By John Livingston
johnlivingston@homelandsecurityus.com
19 August 2006: Everyone of us likes to think we are knowledgeable about something. It could be a sports team, hobby, fashion, money and markets, whatever. What about religion, specifically, the end of the world? Is this a topic just for whacko-s? Boring? Irrelevant? Religious beliefs have caused more death and destruction in the world than any other single factor in the history of mankind. End of the world beliefs have certainly resulted in the most irrational actions. People have sold everything they owned, spent money that they did not have, and quit their well-paying jobs, gone to live in caves, drank cyanide laced Kool-aide, and waited for some eartly invasion …all because of what they believed about the end of the world. Of course they have all been wrong so far. One day someone will probably be right. Or someone might simply make it happen.
You consider yourself a mentally stable person, not prone to decisions like those described above, believing such foolishness to be reserved for cult members or the insane. God exists, but you are a “sane religious person”. Or perhaps you might not be religious at all, and think that it is not important to know what anybody else believes. Think again. It is more vital now, than at any time in history, to be armed with this knowledge. Never before have there been so many, who have held such strong beliefs, that felt that they had an active part in the end times, who also possessed nuclear weapons. In that light, the won-lost record of your favorite sports team, or what the stock market is doing, seems trivial.
What do people believe? Christians have the books of Daniel, the Revelation, and scattered prophecies throughout the Old and New Testament that speak about the end of the world. Jews stick to the Old Testament. Islam likewise contains an end-time scenario and a reason for the world to end. It is much like Christianity’s, except it contains a few twists. Following is a short version of the Islamic apocalypse and why it matters that you understand it.
All Islamic beliefs are derived from two sources, the Qu’ran and the teachings of the Prophet Muhammad. Christianity and Islam both teach that the end will conclude with a Judgment Day that is preceded by many signs to strengthen the faithful and give the rebellious one last chance to repent. Muslims believe they are in the last days, because one of the signs is that they would be numerous on the earth, but that the world would be enjoying their wealth “like a man at a banquet”. Regardless of the current rise of Islam, centuries of wars have engrained in them that theirs is a repressed religion.
During the Last Days, mainstream Islam teaches that a great Muslim leader will arise called the Mahdi. (pronounced MAH-dee) A direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, this man is the Islamic messiah. His mission is to:
1) Unite all the Islamic faithful,
2) Wage a victorious war against the enemies of Islam, which will result in,
3) the “liberation of the Middle East” bringing peace and prosperity.
4) This will allow all Muslims to retire to the Holy Land.
Both Shia and Sunni Muslims believe he is on the earth today, but differ in the details. The President of Iran believes that he is on a divine mission to hasten the Mahdi’s appearing by perhaps beginning that war. One can look at the news today and consider the implications of what could happen if someone in his or any other position of power holds these beliefs. A non-Muslim would be unsafe anywhere in the Middle East, or the world for that matter, even a Christian Arab. In reality, a peace treaty with Israel or any non-Muslim state would be meaningless. Nothing short of fulfillment of the Mahdi’s mission is acceptable. In this case, religion is going to supersede politics. Christians believe that Israel will be invaded by an alliance of nations in the last days as prophesied by Ezekiel in chapters 38 and 39. Muslims are waiting for the great war waged by the Mahdi to liberate the Middle East. The same event in the eyes of a Christian could look quite different to a Muslim. An American Christian could see an unjust invasion, while a Muslim sees a fulfillment of end-time prophecy.
Many believe that Islam does not believe in Jesus, but this is not so. Muslims believe He was a prophet of God who was arrested, but did not die, and that the onlookers at the cross “were made to believe” it was Jesus who died. Muslims believe He was instead, taken to Heaven and is awaiting His role in last day events. More on Jesus in a moment.
After the Mahdi is victorious, he establishes Islamic rule in the Holy Land. This is when Islam believes the Anti-Christ will appear. He is called the Dajjal. Claiming to be God and appearing to have miraculous powers, he will wage war against all expressions of religion, and most of the people of the earth will follow him. The Dajjal will use his significant military might to begin to conquer the middle east which was previously united under the Mahdi. His reign lasts only 40 days, but is abruptly put to an end by the coming of…Jesus! That’s it? No.
Jesus will then speak to the world and convert everyone, especially Jews and Christians, to Islam, announcing it as the one true religion. He will then become the spiritual leader of a multi-national government, and live forty more years, have children, and die a natural death. That is the end, right? Not yet.
There is still the biblical invasion described in Ezekiel of Gog and Magog, except in Islam it is an invasion of the entire Middle East and happens after all these events. Jesus is still alive at this point, and prays for the deliverance of the land of Palestine. His prayer is heard, deliverance comes, and many of the world’s “unconverted”, will convert to Islam. Before this is fully completed however, Jesus dies.
Then comes the final Day of Judgment, when a great, mysterious creature appears out of the earth to warn the people that this is the end. A lot of terrible things happen at this point, the good are swept away and protected from the cataclysms, and everyone stands before God in Judgment to receive their eternal rewards.
A casual student of eschatology (religious study of the end of the world) will recognize many similarities between Christian and Islamic end-time scenarios. There is a critical difference however. Christian’s believe God loves everyone in the world, and desires to be reconciled to them through His Son. If you reject Him, He still reaches out to you. Muslims believe that one can only be “right with God” through Islam, (a way of living, not a person), and to challenge it, makes you worthy of being killed. Christianity is focused on a Person, and an individual’s relation to Him. The “Christian” Crusades, which are part of the Muslim-European problem still today, taught us that you can’t kill in the name of God and force someone to serve Him. Yet that is the threat we all are seeing unfold before our eyes. It would benefit all of us to educate ourselves, and to seriously consider the mindset of those with the enriched uranium.
A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini
A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing.
"I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."
"I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."
The Enemy Is Not Islam. It Is Nihilism
The Weekly Standard
The Enemy Is Not Islam. It Is Nihilism
Why everything is at stake.
by Charles Krauthammer
EUROPE'S GREAT RELIGIOUS WARS ended in 1648. Three and a half centuries is a long time, too long for us in the West to truly believe that people still slaughter others to vindicate the faith.
Thus in the face of radical Islamic terrorism that murders 6,000 innocents in a day, we find it almost impossible to accept at face value the reason offered by the murderers. Yet Osama bin Laden could not be clearer. Jihad has been declared against the infidel, whose power and influence thwart the triumph of Islam, and whose success and example--indeed, whose very existence--are an affront to the true faith. As a leader of Hamas declared at a rally three days after the World Trade Center attack, "the only solution is for Bush to convert to Islam."
To Americans, who are taught religious tolerance from the cradle, who visit each other's churches for interdenominational succor and solidarity, this seems simply bizarre. On September 25, bin Laden issues a warning to his people that Bush is coming "under the banner of the cross." Two weeks later, in his pre-taped post-attack video, he scorns Bush as "head of the infidels."
Can he be serious? This idea is so alien that our learned commentators, Western and secular, have gone rummaging through their ideological attics to find more familiar terms to explain why we were so savagely attacked: poverty and destitution in the Islamic world; grievances against the West, America, Israel; the "wretched of the earth"--Frantz Fanon's 1960s apotheosis of anti-colonialism--rising against their oppressors.
Reading conventional notions of class struggle and anti-colonialism into bin Laden, the Taliban, and radical Islam is not just solipsistic. It is nonsense. If poverty and destitution, colonialism and capitalism are animating radical Islam, explain this: In March, the Taliban went to the Afghan desert where stood great monuments of human culture, two massive Buddhas carved out of a cliff. At first, Taliban soldiers tried artillery. The 1,500-year-old masterpieces proved too hardy. The Taliban had to resort to dynamite. They blew the statues to bits, then slaughtered 100 cows in atonement--for having taken so long to finish the job.
Buddhism is hardly a representative of the West. It is hardly a cause of poverty and destitution. It is hardly a symbol of colonialism. No. The statues represented two things: an alternative faith and a great work of civilization. To the Taliban, the presence of both was intolerable.
The distinguished Indian writer and now Nobel Prize winner V.S. Naipaul, who has chronicled the Islamic world in two books ("Among the Believers" and "Beyond Belief"), recently warned (in a public talk in Melbourne before the World Trade Center attack), "We are within reach of great nihilistic forces that have undone civilization." In places like Afghanistan, "religion has been turned by some into a kind of nihilism, where people wish to destroy themselves and destroy their past and their culture . . . to be pure. They are enraged about the world and they wish to pull it down." This kind of fury and fanaticism is unappeasable. It knows no social, economic, or political solution. "You cannot converge with this [position] because it holds that your life is worthless and your beliefs are criminal and should be extirpated."
This insight offers a needed window on the new enemy. It turns out that the enemy does have recognizable analogues in the Western experience. He is, as President Bush averred in his address to the nation, heir to the malignant ideologies of the 20th century. In its nihilism, its will to power, its celebration of blood and death, its craving for the cleansing purity that comes only from eradicating life and culture, radical Islam is heir, above all, to Nazism. The destruction of the World Trade Center was meant not only to wreak terror. Like the smashing of the Bamiyan Buddhas, it was meant to obliterate greatness and beauty, elegance and grace. These artifacts represented civilization embodied in stone or steel. They had to be destroyed.
This worship of death and destruction is a nihilism of a ferocity unlike any since the Nazis burned books, then art, then whole peoples. Goebbels would have marvelled at the recruitment tape for al Qaeda, a two-hour orgy of blood and death: image after image of brutalized Muslims shown in various poses of victimization, followed by glorious images of desecration of the infidel--mutilated American soldiers in Somalia, the destruction of the USS Cole, mangled bodies at the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Throughout, the soundtrack endlessly repeats the refrain "with blood, with blood, with blood." Bin Laden appears on the tape to counsel that "the love of this world is wrong. You should love the other world...die in the right cause and go to the other world." In his October 9 taped message, al Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman abu Ghaith gloried in the "thousands of young people who look forward to death, like the Americans look forward to living."
Once again, the world is faced with a transcendent conflict between those who love life and those who love death both for themselves and their enemies. Which is why we tremble. Upon witnessing the first atomic bomb explode at the Trinity site at Alamogordo, J. Robert Oppenheimer recited a verse from the Hindu scripture "Bhagavad Gita": "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds." We tremble because for the first time in history, nihilism will soon be armed with the ultimate weapons of annihilation. For the first time in history, the nihilist will have the means to match his ends. Which is why the war declared upon us on September 11 is the most urgent not only of our lives, but in the life of civilization itself.
Charles Krauthammer is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard.
October 22, 2001 - Volume 7, Number 6
The Enemy Is Not Islam. It Is Nihilism
Why everything is at stake.
by Charles Krauthammer
EUROPE'S GREAT RELIGIOUS WARS ended in 1648. Three and a half centuries is a long time, too long for us in the West to truly believe that people still slaughter others to vindicate the faith.
Thus in the face of radical Islamic terrorism that murders 6,000 innocents in a day, we find it almost impossible to accept at face value the reason offered by the murderers. Yet Osama bin Laden could not be clearer. Jihad has been declared against the infidel, whose power and influence thwart the triumph of Islam, and whose success and example--indeed, whose very existence--are an affront to the true faith. As a leader of Hamas declared at a rally three days after the World Trade Center attack, "the only solution is for Bush to convert to Islam."
To Americans, who are taught religious tolerance from the cradle, who visit each other's churches for interdenominational succor and solidarity, this seems simply bizarre. On September 25, bin Laden issues a warning to his people that Bush is coming "under the banner of the cross." Two weeks later, in his pre-taped post-attack video, he scorns Bush as "head of the infidels."
Can he be serious? This idea is so alien that our learned commentators, Western and secular, have gone rummaging through their ideological attics to find more familiar terms to explain why we were so savagely attacked: poverty and destitution in the Islamic world; grievances against the West, America, Israel; the "wretched of the earth"--Frantz Fanon's 1960s apotheosis of anti-colonialism--rising against their oppressors.
Reading conventional notions of class struggle and anti-colonialism into bin Laden, the Taliban, and radical Islam is not just solipsistic. It is nonsense. If poverty and destitution, colonialism and capitalism are animating radical Islam, explain this: In March, the Taliban went to the Afghan desert where stood great monuments of human culture, two massive Buddhas carved out of a cliff. At first, Taliban soldiers tried artillery. The 1,500-year-old masterpieces proved too hardy. The Taliban had to resort to dynamite. They blew the statues to bits, then slaughtered 100 cows in atonement--for having taken so long to finish the job.
Buddhism is hardly a representative of the West. It is hardly a cause of poverty and destitution. It is hardly a symbol of colonialism. No. The statues represented two things: an alternative faith and a great work of civilization. To the Taliban, the presence of both was intolerable.
The distinguished Indian writer and now Nobel Prize winner V.S. Naipaul, who has chronicled the Islamic world in two books ("Among the Believers" and "Beyond Belief"), recently warned (in a public talk in Melbourne before the World Trade Center attack), "We are within reach of great nihilistic forces that have undone civilization." In places like Afghanistan, "religion has been turned by some into a kind of nihilism, where people wish to destroy themselves and destroy their past and their culture . . . to be pure. They are enraged about the world and they wish to pull it down." This kind of fury and fanaticism is unappeasable. It knows no social, economic, or political solution. "You cannot converge with this [position] because it holds that your life is worthless and your beliefs are criminal and should be extirpated."
This insight offers a needed window on the new enemy. It turns out that the enemy does have recognizable analogues in the Western experience. He is, as President Bush averred in his address to the nation, heir to the malignant ideologies of the 20th century. In its nihilism, its will to power, its celebration of blood and death, its craving for the cleansing purity that comes only from eradicating life and culture, radical Islam is heir, above all, to Nazism. The destruction of the World Trade Center was meant not only to wreak terror. Like the smashing of the Bamiyan Buddhas, it was meant to obliterate greatness and beauty, elegance and grace. These artifacts represented civilization embodied in stone or steel. They had to be destroyed.
This worship of death and destruction is a nihilism of a ferocity unlike any since the Nazis burned books, then art, then whole peoples. Goebbels would have marvelled at the recruitment tape for al Qaeda, a two-hour orgy of blood and death: image after image of brutalized Muslims shown in various poses of victimization, followed by glorious images of desecration of the infidel--mutilated American soldiers in Somalia, the destruction of the USS Cole, mangled bodies at the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Throughout, the soundtrack endlessly repeats the refrain "with blood, with blood, with blood." Bin Laden appears on the tape to counsel that "the love of this world is wrong. You should love the other world...die in the right cause and go to the other world." In his October 9 taped message, al Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman abu Ghaith gloried in the "thousands of young people who look forward to death, like the Americans look forward to living."
Once again, the world is faced with a transcendent conflict between those who love life and those who love death both for themselves and their enemies. Which is why we tremble. Upon witnessing the first atomic bomb explode at the Trinity site at Alamogordo, J. Robert Oppenheimer recited a verse from the Hindu scripture "Bhagavad Gita": "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds." We tremble because for the first time in history, nihilism will soon be armed with the ultimate weapons of annihilation. For the first time in history, the nihilist will have the means to match his ends. Which is why the war declared upon us on September 11 is the most urgent not only of our lives, but in the life of civilization itself.
Charles Krauthammer is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard.
October 22, 2001 - Volume 7, Number 6
Bracing for the Apocalypse
By Charles Krauthammer
Thursday, February 13, 2003
WASHINGTON--The domestic terror alert jumps to 9/11 levels. Heathrow Airport is ringed by tanks. Duct tape and plastic sheeting disappear from Washington store shelves. Osama resurfaces. North Korea reopens its plutonium processing plant and threatens pre-emptive attack. The Second Gulf War is about to begin. This is not the Apocalypse. But it is excellent preparation for it. You don't get to a place like this overnight. It takes at least, oh, a decade. We are now paying the wages of the 1990s, our holiday from history. During that decade, every major challenge to America was deferred. The chief aim of the Clinton administration was to make sure that nothing terrible happened on its watch. Accordingly, every can was kicked down the road: --Iraq: Saddam continued defying the world and building his arsenal, even as the United States acquiesced to the progressive weakening of U.N. sanctions and then to the expulsion of all weapons inspectors. --North Korea: When it threatened to go nuclear in 1993, Clinton managed to put off the reckoning with an agreement to freeze Pyongyang's program. The agreement--surprise!--was a fraud. All the time, the North Koreans were clandestinely enriching uranium. They are now in full nuclear breakout. --Terrorism: The first World Trade Center attack occurred in 1993, followed by the blowing up of two embassies in Africa and the attack on the USS Cole. Treating terrorism as a problem of law enforcement, Clinton dispatched the FBI--and the odd cruise missile to ostentatiously kick up some desert sand. Osama was offered up by Sudan in 1996. We turned him away for lack of legal justification. That is how one acts on holiday: Mortal enemies are dealt with not as combatants, but as defendants. Clinton flattered himself as looking beyond such mundane problems to a grander transnational vision (global warming, migration and the like), while dispatching American military might to quell ``teacup wars'' in places like Bosnia. On June 19, 2000, the Clinton administration solved the rogue-state problem by abolishing the term and replacing it with ``states of concern.'' Unconcerned, the rogues prospered, arming and girding themselves for big wars. Which are now upon us. On Sept. 11, the cozy illusions and stupid pretensions died. We now recognize the central problem of the 21st century: the conjunction of terrorism, rogue states and weapons of mass destruction. True, weapons of mass destruction are not new. What is new is that the knowledge required to make them is no longer esoteric. Anyone with a reasonable education in modern physics, chemistry or biology can brew them. Doomsday has been democratized. There is no avoiding the danger any longer. Last year, President Bush's axis-of-evil speech was met with eye-rolling disdain by the sophisticates. One year later, the warning has been vindicated in all its parts. Even the United Nations says Iraq must be disarmed. The International Atomic Energy Agency has just (politely) declared North Korea a nuclear outlaw. Iran has announced plans to mine uranium and reprocess spent nuclear fuel; we have recently discovered two secret Iranian nuclear complexes. We are in a race against time. Once such hostile states establish arsenals, we become self-deterred and they become invulnerable. North Korea may already have crossed that threshold. There is a real question whether we can win the race. Year One of the new era, 2002, passed rather peaceably. Year Two will not: 2003 could be as cataclysmic as 1914 or 1939. Carl Sagan invented a famous formula for calculating the probability of intelligent life in the universe. Estimate the number of planets in the universe and calculate the tiny fraction that might support life and that have had enough evolution to produce intelligence. He prudently added one other factor, however: the odds of extinction. The existence of intelligent life depends not just on creation, but on continuity. What is the probability that a civilization will not destroy itself once its very intelligence grants it the means of self-destruction? This planet has been around for 4 billion years, intelligent life for perhaps 200,000, weapons of mass destruction for less than 100. A hundred--in the eye of the universe, less than a blink. And yet we already find ourselves on the brink. What are the odds that our species will manage to contain this awful knowledge without self-destruction--not for a billion years or a million or even a thousand, but just through the lifetime of our children? Those are the stakes today. Before our eyes, in a flash, politics has gone cosmic. The question before us is very large and very simple: Can--and will--the civilized part of humanity disarm the barbarians who would use the ultimate knowledge for the ultimate destruction? Within months, we will have a good idea whether the answer is yes or no.
Thursday, February 13, 2003
WASHINGTON--The domestic terror alert jumps to 9/11 levels. Heathrow Airport is ringed by tanks. Duct tape and plastic sheeting disappear from Washington store shelves. Osama resurfaces. North Korea reopens its plutonium processing plant and threatens pre-emptive attack. The Second Gulf War is about to begin. This is not the Apocalypse. But it is excellent preparation for it. You don't get to a place like this overnight. It takes at least, oh, a decade. We are now paying the wages of the 1990s, our holiday from history. During that decade, every major challenge to America was deferred. The chief aim of the Clinton administration was to make sure that nothing terrible happened on its watch. Accordingly, every can was kicked down the road: --Iraq: Saddam continued defying the world and building his arsenal, even as the United States acquiesced to the progressive weakening of U.N. sanctions and then to the expulsion of all weapons inspectors. --North Korea: When it threatened to go nuclear in 1993, Clinton managed to put off the reckoning with an agreement to freeze Pyongyang's program. The agreement--surprise!--was a fraud. All the time, the North Koreans were clandestinely enriching uranium. They are now in full nuclear breakout. --Terrorism: The first World Trade Center attack occurred in 1993, followed by the blowing up of two embassies in Africa and the attack on the USS Cole. Treating terrorism as a problem of law enforcement, Clinton dispatched the FBI--and the odd cruise missile to ostentatiously kick up some desert sand. Osama was offered up by Sudan in 1996. We turned him away for lack of legal justification. That is how one acts on holiday: Mortal enemies are dealt with not as combatants, but as defendants. Clinton flattered himself as looking beyond such mundane problems to a grander transnational vision (global warming, migration and the like), while dispatching American military might to quell ``teacup wars'' in places like Bosnia. On June 19, 2000, the Clinton administration solved the rogue-state problem by abolishing the term and replacing it with ``states of concern.'' Unconcerned, the rogues prospered, arming and girding themselves for big wars. Which are now upon us. On Sept. 11, the cozy illusions and stupid pretensions died. We now recognize the central problem of the 21st century: the conjunction of terrorism, rogue states and weapons of mass destruction. True, weapons of mass destruction are not new. What is new is that the knowledge required to make them is no longer esoteric. Anyone with a reasonable education in modern physics, chemistry or biology can brew them. Doomsday has been democratized. There is no avoiding the danger any longer. Last year, President Bush's axis-of-evil speech was met with eye-rolling disdain by the sophisticates. One year later, the warning has been vindicated in all its parts. Even the United Nations says Iraq must be disarmed. The International Atomic Energy Agency has just (politely) declared North Korea a nuclear outlaw. Iran has announced plans to mine uranium and reprocess spent nuclear fuel; we have recently discovered two secret Iranian nuclear complexes. We are in a race against time. Once such hostile states establish arsenals, we become self-deterred and they become invulnerable. North Korea may already have crossed that threshold. There is a real question whether we can win the race. Year One of the new era, 2002, passed rather peaceably. Year Two will not: 2003 could be as cataclysmic as 1914 or 1939. Carl Sagan invented a famous formula for calculating the probability of intelligent life in the universe. Estimate the number of planets in the universe and calculate the tiny fraction that might support life and that have had enough evolution to produce intelligence. He prudently added one other factor, however: the odds of extinction. The existence of intelligent life depends not just on creation, but on continuity. What is the probability that a civilization will not destroy itself once its very intelligence grants it the means of self-destruction? This planet has been around for 4 billion years, intelligent life for perhaps 200,000, weapons of mass destruction for less than 100. A hundred--in the eye of the universe, less than a blink. And yet we already find ourselves on the brink. What are the odds that our species will manage to contain this awful knowledge without self-destruction--not for a billion years or a million or even a thousand, but just through the lifetime of our children? Those are the stakes today. Before our eyes, in a flash, politics has gone cosmic. The question before us is very large and very simple: Can--and will--the civilized part of humanity disarm the barbarians who would use the ultimate knowledge for the ultimate destruction? Within months, we will have a good idea whether the answer is yes or no.
Iran's Apocalyptic War Plan has Begun; Israel First, West Next
Posted by admin on 2006/7/24 2:53:13 ( )
"The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world."-- said Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, just 6 days after becoming Iran’s President
1,500 Islamic terrorist fighters from Iraqi Shi'ite militia in Baghdad recruited to fight Israel in Lebanon – Sunni’s also calling for volunteers
By Douglas J. Hagmann, Directordirector@homelandsecurityus.com
24 July 2006: As attacks on Israel and on Israeli troops continued, Israeli news media is reporting that about 18,000 Israeli soldiers have now been mobilized for operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Hezbollah's rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and towns have been relentless despite the ongoing Israeli operations; more than 90 rockets landed in Israel yesterday, killing two people in Haifa, one when rocket shrapnel hit a man’s car and another when a man’s carpentry shop was struck by a missile.
Meanwhile, Iran is using Lebanese territory as a frontline zone for an assault on northern Israel. According to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Shiite regime in Tehran has created a mini-state in southern Lebanon, using the build-up of Hezbollah’s forces since Israel voluntarily vacated southern Lebanon in 2000. The Iranians have been preparing for this war since Israel pulled out of southern Lebanon 6 years ago, sending Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to provide Hezbollah with tens of thousands of rockets, missiles, and other weaponry.
Make no mistake about it: Hezbollah's attack on Israel nearly two weeks ago was directed by the highest levels of the Iranian government due to Iran's official ideology that is based on a fundamentalist Shiite theology. Iran’s Islamic theocratic doctrine calls for the complete annihilation of Israel and additional wave of attacks to establish global dominance of Shiite Islam. “Israel is merely a stepping stone to the West.” In order to win the “global war on terror,” which is more accurately described as a global war against fundamentalist Islam, the West must understand the enemy and their objectives.
It is the stated belief of Iranian President Ahmadinejad that it is his earthly role usher in a period of apocalyptic warfare to annihilate non-Shiite Muslims, and facilitate the "return" of the twelfth imam, signaling the end of time and supreme global rule of Shiite Islam. In a statement made by Ahmadinejad after being elected the president of Iran, he stated, "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 (2005) will, if God wills, cut off the roots of injustice in the world, The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world."
To accomplish the objectives of this self-appointed Islamic savior, southern Lebanon, controlled by Iranian proxy Hezbollah, is being armed, funded, manned and controlled by Tehran. The fact that Iran is directly involved in the war against Israel was confirmed yesterday as some of the dead soldiers fighting with Hezbollah were identified as Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers. They were killed by the Israeli army in Lebanon and were transported back to Tehran through Syria, Iran’s close ally in this war. It should be noted that Iran and Syria are the largest financial sponsors of Hezbollah; numerous rockets used by Hezbollah were made by or maintained by Iran.
Additionally, two weeks ago Iranian guards assisted Hezbollah fighters in firing a radar-guided C–802 missile that hit an Israeli navy vessel off the coast of Lebanon, killing four soldiers. Israel says Iran acquired the missile from China.
Sunnis, Shi’ites table their differences to fight Israel
From Iraq, a senior member of Muqtada al-Sadr's Iraqi Shi'ite militia, the Mahdi Army, says the group is forming a squadron of up to 1,500 elite fighters to go to Lebanon and assist Hezbollah in fighting Israel. "We are choosing the men right now," said Abu Mujtaba, who works in the loosely organized following of radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. "We are preparing the right men for the job." According to military intelligence reports, Sheik al-Sadr's black-clad armed militia numbers in the thousands, operates throughout central and southern Iraq and is thought to be responsible for numerous killings of Sunnis.
In an interview with a western reporter, a rival Sunni cleric, Abdul Rahman al-Duleimi, stated that he knew of the Shi’ite’s militia's recruiting effort and that he had appealed to his own followers to fight Israel. "We know that the Mahdi militia is on this issue since the Lebanon-Israeli crisis started," said Sheik al-Duleimi (unrelated to Adnan al-Dulaimi, a Sunni cleric and leader of a major faction in Iraq’s parliament).
During Muslim prayers on Friday, Sheik al-Duleimi "called the people to volunteer, and if they cannot, they should donate anything. I called on people to donate even one bullet, because maybe this one bullet will kill one Israeli."
Many “duped” by Iran and claims of Israel’s “disproportionate use of force”
Iran is also duping the world court in two specific ways. First, while the eyes of the world are on the Middle East war, Ahmadinejad’s regime continues to push forward their nuclear agenda. More insidiously, Hezbollah, again under Iran’s direction, are hiding their weapons among civilians in Lebanon, including homes, schools and mosques. Doing so slows down Israel’s forces, and if by chance a mosque, house or school is destroyed by Israel’s determination to avoid their own death, the media is effectively used to influence world opinion against Israel and the United States.
World opinion is already strongly footed against Israel. "My country has been 'torn to shreds,'" said Fouad Siniora, prime minister of Lebanon, as the death toll among his people passed 300 civilian dead, 1,000 wounded, with half a million homeless. Israel must pay for the "barbaric destruction," said Siniora. The prime minister, however, fails to address his administrations inability to control a terrorist organization operating within the borders of his won country – one that uses the citizens of his country as human shields.
And world opinion – especially the opinion of Muslims worldwide, is equally against the U.S. Because Israel is, in part, using U.S.-built F-16s, with precision-guided bombs, the U.S. is as much responsible for the death and destruction in Lebanon as Israel. Accordingly, the U.S. can certainly expect retaliation just as the Israelis can expect a bitter fight that has no end in sight.
"The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world."-- said Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, just 6 days after becoming Iran’s President
1,500 Islamic terrorist fighters from Iraqi Shi'ite militia in Baghdad recruited to fight Israel in Lebanon – Sunni’s also calling for volunteers
By Douglas J. Hagmann, Directordirector@homelandsecurityus.com
24 July 2006: As attacks on Israel and on Israeli troops continued, Israeli news media is reporting that about 18,000 Israeli soldiers have now been mobilized for operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Hezbollah's rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and towns have been relentless despite the ongoing Israeli operations; more than 90 rockets landed in Israel yesterday, killing two people in Haifa, one when rocket shrapnel hit a man’s car and another when a man’s carpentry shop was struck by a missile.
Meanwhile, Iran is using Lebanese territory as a frontline zone for an assault on northern Israel. According to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Shiite regime in Tehran has created a mini-state in southern Lebanon, using the build-up of Hezbollah’s forces since Israel voluntarily vacated southern Lebanon in 2000. The Iranians have been preparing for this war since Israel pulled out of southern Lebanon 6 years ago, sending Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to provide Hezbollah with tens of thousands of rockets, missiles, and other weaponry.
Make no mistake about it: Hezbollah's attack on Israel nearly two weeks ago was directed by the highest levels of the Iranian government due to Iran's official ideology that is based on a fundamentalist Shiite theology. Iran’s Islamic theocratic doctrine calls for the complete annihilation of Israel and additional wave of attacks to establish global dominance of Shiite Islam. “Israel is merely a stepping stone to the West.” In order to win the “global war on terror,” which is more accurately described as a global war against fundamentalist Islam, the West must understand the enemy and their objectives.
It is the stated belief of Iranian President Ahmadinejad that it is his earthly role usher in a period of apocalyptic warfare to annihilate non-Shiite Muslims, and facilitate the "return" of the twelfth imam, signaling the end of time and supreme global rule of Shiite Islam. In a statement made by Ahmadinejad after being elected the president of Iran, he stated, "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 (2005) will, if God wills, cut off the roots of injustice in the world, The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world."
To accomplish the objectives of this self-appointed Islamic savior, southern Lebanon, controlled by Iranian proxy Hezbollah, is being armed, funded, manned and controlled by Tehran. The fact that Iran is directly involved in the war against Israel was confirmed yesterday as some of the dead soldiers fighting with Hezbollah were identified as Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers. They were killed by the Israeli army in Lebanon and were transported back to Tehran through Syria, Iran’s close ally in this war. It should be noted that Iran and Syria are the largest financial sponsors of Hezbollah; numerous rockets used by Hezbollah were made by or maintained by Iran.
Additionally, two weeks ago Iranian guards assisted Hezbollah fighters in firing a radar-guided C–802 missile that hit an Israeli navy vessel off the coast of Lebanon, killing four soldiers. Israel says Iran acquired the missile from China.
Sunnis, Shi’ites table their differences to fight Israel
From Iraq, a senior member of Muqtada al-Sadr's Iraqi Shi'ite militia, the Mahdi Army, says the group is forming a squadron of up to 1,500 elite fighters to go to Lebanon and assist Hezbollah in fighting Israel. "We are choosing the men right now," said Abu Mujtaba, who works in the loosely organized following of radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. "We are preparing the right men for the job." According to military intelligence reports, Sheik al-Sadr's black-clad armed militia numbers in the thousands, operates throughout central and southern Iraq and is thought to be responsible for numerous killings of Sunnis.
In an interview with a western reporter, a rival Sunni cleric, Abdul Rahman al-Duleimi, stated that he knew of the Shi’ite’s militia's recruiting effort and that he had appealed to his own followers to fight Israel. "We know that the Mahdi militia is on this issue since the Lebanon-Israeli crisis started," said Sheik al-Duleimi (unrelated to Adnan al-Dulaimi, a Sunni cleric and leader of a major faction in Iraq’s parliament).
During Muslim prayers on Friday, Sheik al-Duleimi "called the people to volunteer, and if they cannot, they should donate anything. I called on people to donate even one bullet, because maybe this one bullet will kill one Israeli."
Many “duped” by Iran and claims of Israel’s “disproportionate use of force”
Iran is also duping the world court in two specific ways. First, while the eyes of the world are on the Middle East war, Ahmadinejad’s regime continues to push forward their nuclear agenda. More insidiously, Hezbollah, again under Iran’s direction, are hiding their weapons among civilians in Lebanon, including homes, schools and mosques. Doing so slows down Israel’s forces, and if by chance a mosque, house or school is destroyed by Israel’s determination to avoid their own death, the media is effectively used to influence world opinion against Israel and the United States.
World opinion is already strongly footed against Israel. "My country has been 'torn to shreds,'" said Fouad Siniora, prime minister of Lebanon, as the death toll among his people passed 300 civilian dead, 1,000 wounded, with half a million homeless. Israel must pay for the "barbaric destruction," said Siniora. The prime minister, however, fails to address his administrations inability to control a terrorist organization operating within the borders of his won country – one that uses the citizens of his country as human shields.
And world opinion – especially the opinion of Muslims worldwide, is equally against the U.S. Because Israel is, in part, using U.S.-built F-16s, with precision-guided bombs, the U.S. is as much responsible for the death and destruction in Lebanon as Israel. Accordingly, the U.S. can certainly expect retaliation just as the Israelis can expect a bitter fight that has no end in sight.
World War IV?
Posted by Sean Osborne on 2006/7/22 6:36:14
Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat.
See UPDATE below main article.
By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairssosborne@homelandsecurityus.com
22 July 2006: The current military situation in the Middle East is EVERYONE'S worst nightmare - whether they individually or collectively realize it at this moment or not. I say this due to the fact that, believe it or not, some here in the United States don’t believe this war will amount to much of anything for American’s to be concerned about. They do not realize or accept that we are engaged in World War IV. (I classify the so-called “Cold War” as World War III.)
They are wrong, and probably dead wrong.
To be sure, this is not just another Arab versus Israel war. This is an existential war. This is a war specifically begun via proxy as designed and prepared for by the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and their military allies. Israel is both the initial target and the ultimate objective.
So is the United States of America.
America is an enemy objective and a part of this war because we have been targeted by the Iranian regime, their proxy terrorist forces and allied nations due to our support of Israel.
As long as America stands behind Israel as the arsenal of democracy and best hope of freedom the enemy axis powers know full well they cannot hope to defeat Israel on the battlefield. The Iranian plan has always been to ignite the two front war in Israel, and then to hit the US with a haymaker from our blindside. Their plan, the Hojjatieh sect of Shi’a Islam plan, has always been to ignite an Armageddon-like scenario, to collapse “Anglo-Saxon civilization” as an intregal part of the overall objective to achieve hegemony over all of the Middle East, Islam and the oil beneath those lands. Thus in executing these objectives nothing less than World War IV will result.
The Order of Battle
The events in Gaza and Northern Israel were the well coordinated triggering events which launched this war. The rapid escalation and weaponry brought to bear are indicative of the battle plan prepared well in advance of hostilities. Recent engagements illustrate this in an unambiguous manner.
A week ago an Israeli Navy Sa’ar-5 class corvette, the “Ahi Hanit”, was struck by an Iranian C-802 shore-to-ship variant of the Communist Chinese designed YJ-8 family of cruise missiles. Iran purchased at least sixty C-802’s from the Chinese PLA. The C-802 missile (NATO Codename: CSS-N-8 SACCADE) was launched under inertial guidance from the Lebanese littoral most likely by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) troops. Most open-source military reports state that this cruise missile is radar guided. True, all indications are that the C-802 has a J-band (10 – 20 Gigahertz) terminal active radar guidance seeker in the warhead.
What has not been widely reported, however, is that an Iranian submarine, which I believe to be a Russian-made SSK Kilo-class electric-diesel boat, was nearby at the time. Did this Iranian sub provide some form of terminal guidance to the C-802 missile? It’s possible. That the sub was in the area of combat operations prior to the execution of the battle plan also speaks to the detailed preparations made by Iran. There are no reports that I am aware of which reported this sub transiting north-bound through the Suez Canal. The lack of this information in open-sources means that the Iranian sub had quite a long voyage around the African continent to arrive on station prior to hostilities. My theory is that upon reaching the Strait of Gibraltar the Iranian sub performed a maneuver that is known as “degaussing.” It parked itself directly underneath an eastbound commercial freighter and made the run through the strait completely under electrical power. It then continued along a 100 fathom line along the North African coast to the area of Tunisia and on to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Just about 48 hours ago I learned of the first open-source report on the detection of this submarine. The CBN report stated that a U.S. Air Force RC-135V/W "Rivet Joint" reconnaissance aircraft detected the Iranian submarine with its very sensitive Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) sensor array. The CBN report then commented on the full-extent of the electronic surveillance capabilities of the “Rivet Joint” aircraft by noting its sensors had also detected Iranian ballistic missile activities and shipments of these missiles to Lebanon.
In the past couple of days Israeli SOF had located an Iranian Zelzal-2 (Earthquake) short range ballistic missile (SRBM) on its launcher in Lebanon. The missile, with a maximum range of about 250 miles, was prepped and ready to launch. An immediate air strike guided by on-the-ground Israeli Special Forces laser designators was radioed in. The air strike on the missile launcher threw the Zelzal airborne momentarily and ultimately impacting the ground a very short distance away. Scratch one Zelzal. More Iranian Zelzal’s were targeted in the exact same manner as they crossed from Syria into Lebanon. When you read of or see broadcast reports of Israeli air strikes on bridges between Lebanon and Syria along the Beirut-Damascus highway and other avenues into Lebanon they are specifically intended to halt the flow of such war material. However, conservative estimates are that enemy combatants in Lebanon had at least 200 of these Iranian ballistic missiles prior to hostilities erupting.
The Current Situation Report (SITREP)
The war has the Israeli Defense Forces fully engaged, although not to the level of their entire strategic depth, but fairly close to that level. The Israeli’s are prepared for any battlefield eventuality, including the use of WMD. In fact, Israeli ground forces are about to move into southern Lebanon on a large scale combat operation to engage all enemy combatants. This may include Lebanese army forces who reportedly will side themselves with Hezbollah and IRGC forces. The Syrian military has been making moves of its own by targeting its own missile forces on Israeli targets. One can reasonably expect that this is totally unacceptable to the Israeli High Command and a pre-emptive strike against Syrian targets is an imminent probability. The point of all this is to illustrate that this war is just getting to the boiling point and its escalation to full-scale regional warfare can happen within hours or minutes of your reading this article. I suspect that this war will involve the first use of weapons of mass destruction in the near term against Israel with the resultant immediate Israeli retaliatory response directed against the Syrian capital city Damascus.
Can Israeli pre-emptive strikes against rear-echelon targets in Iran be far behind? And for how long will US and Coalition forces in the CENTCOM AO remain unengaged in the war given the Iranian strategic objectives alluded to above?
Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat. The Northeast Intelligence Network has been consistently warning of this inevitability for a very long time, and I must now repeat the admonition to the whole of America: If you have not been vigilant in your local community before, you absolutely must be so engaged at this time. America is a primary target, a major military objective of Iran, its proxies and allies. Your survival depends upon the level of vigilance and preparations you may or may not have bothered to exert up to this minute. Personal responsibility, prudent planning and preparations are all that stand between you and your family, indeed your own neighborhood and region of the nation, and the war which is now in progress. God help us all.
UPDATE
This special report has resulted in an overwhelming flood of emails requesting me to define for individuals and families what I meant by being "engaged at this time". The following are my observations and recommendations in this regard.First, foremost and paraphrasing my favorite ex-Green Beret, John Moore (a/k/a The Liberty Man) :
1. The U.S. government cannot and will not protect individuals or families. Our government agencies are doing the best job they can to keep our country safe. However, no government agency (including FEMA) is responsible for a comprehensive defense program.
2. Each individual business and family must make their own preparations to be safe from the consequences of a terrorist attack.
Please consider:
a.) We have "just in time" delivery of everything from auto parts to life sustaining pharmaceuticals.
b.) Every part of our infrastructure is a potential target.
c.) A break anywhere in this infrastructure (telecommunications, transportation, utilities) can cause the whole system to fail. Consequently, every citizen is at risk to suffer the consequences of a terrorist attack happening anywhere in the country.TheLibertyMan.Com
Okay, that stated as suscinctly as possible, what do you do individually to prepare yourself, your family, your group of friends, your neighborhood?I suggest the following 8-point minimum regimen be executed ASAP in an effort to transition from a possible victim to a potential survivor:
1.) Non-perishable foodstuffs and fruit juices or reconsitutable/concentrated juices or milk for a minimum of 30 - 60 days sustainment per individual.
2.) Lot's of H2O in cases of individual servings or large bottles and 5-gallon containers. As much as you can possibly collect.
3.) A portable generator, batteries for every device in the house which may require them.
4.) Communications. Hand crank radios like the small Grundig ($20.00) sold by Radio Shack, or any battery operated solid state radio.
5.) Ammo for your personal firearm(s). Execute your Second Amendment rights. Hopefully you don't live in New Jersey as I do.
6.) Fuels: Gasoline or Diesel as you require. Get it now gas/diesel are currently at anywhere from $3.05/$2.75 per gallon. I would expect these prices will increasesubstantially in the very near term - a direct reflection of the Iranian desire for $100 per barrel crude. Fill your 5 gallon cans now if at all possible.
7.) An evacuation plan and lay-up points enroute. In case your area is particularly hard hit and an evacuation is ordered by national or state authorities, have a designated place to go and coordinated plans with fellow travellers if at all possible. Strength is found in numbers.
8.) Keep your bank account well as fed as you are able. If terrorists hit the electrical grid or if an EMP device is utilized during hostilities you will still need to pay any bills. Whatever is not in the bank have liquid as cash-on-hand. ATM's and banks will probably get swamped or could be inoperable for a short time by those who did not prudently plan or prepare ahead of time. The "snooze, you lose" mentality applies here.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and pray for personal guidance from God.Move Out and Execute as much as you are able which applies to your own situation as quickly as you can "Git R Done".
Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat.
See UPDATE below main article.
By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairssosborne@homelandsecurityus.com
22 July 2006: The current military situation in the Middle East is EVERYONE'S worst nightmare - whether they individually or collectively realize it at this moment or not. I say this due to the fact that, believe it or not, some here in the United States don’t believe this war will amount to much of anything for American’s to be concerned about. They do not realize or accept that we are engaged in World War IV. (I classify the so-called “Cold War” as World War III.)
They are wrong, and probably dead wrong.
To be sure, this is not just another Arab versus Israel war. This is an existential war. This is a war specifically begun via proxy as designed and prepared for by the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria and their military allies. Israel is both the initial target and the ultimate objective.
So is the United States of America.
America is an enemy objective and a part of this war because we have been targeted by the Iranian regime, their proxy terrorist forces and allied nations due to our support of Israel.
As long as America stands behind Israel as the arsenal of democracy and best hope of freedom the enemy axis powers know full well they cannot hope to defeat Israel on the battlefield. The Iranian plan has always been to ignite the two front war in Israel, and then to hit the US with a haymaker from our blindside. Their plan, the Hojjatieh sect of Shi’a Islam plan, has always been to ignite an Armageddon-like scenario, to collapse “Anglo-Saxon civilization” as an intregal part of the overall objective to achieve hegemony over all of the Middle East, Islam and the oil beneath those lands. Thus in executing these objectives nothing less than World War IV will result.
The Order of Battle
The events in Gaza and Northern Israel were the well coordinated triggering events which launched this war. The rapid escalation and weaponry brought to bear are indicative of the battle plan prepared well in advance of hostilities. Recent engagements illustrate this in an unambiguous manner.
A week ago an Israeli Navy Sa’ar-5 class corvette, the “Ahi Hanit”, was struck by an Iranian C-802 shore-to-ship variant of the Communist Chinese designed YJ-8 family of cruise missiles. Iran purchased at least sixty C-802’s from the Chinese PLA. The C-802 missile (NATO Codename: CSS-N-8 SACCADE) was launched under inertial guidance from the Lebanese littoral most likely by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) troops. Most open-source military reports state that this cruise missile is radar guided. True, all indications are that the C-802 has a J-band (10 – 20 Gigahertz) terminal active radar guidance seeker in the warhead.
What has not been widely reported, however, is that an Iranian submarine, which I believe to be a Russian-made SSK Kilo-class electric-diesel boat, was nearby at the time. Did this Iranian sub provide some form of terminal guidance to the C-802 missile? It’s possible. That the sub was in the area of combat operations prior to the execution of the battle plan also speaks to the detailed preparations made by Iran. There are no reports that I am aware of which reported this sub transiting north-bound through the Suez Canal. The lack of this information in open-sources means that the Iranian sub had quite a long voyage around the African continent to arrive on station prior to hostilities. My theory is that upon reaching the Strait of Gibraltar the Iranian sub performed a maneuver that is known as “degaussing.” It parked itself directly underneath an eastbound commercial freighter and made the run through the strait completely under electrical power. It then continued along a 100 fathom line along the North African coast to the area of Tunisia and on to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Just about 48 hours ago I learned of the first open-source report on the detection of this submarine. The CBN report stated that a U.S. Air Force RC-135V/W "Rivet Joint" reconnaissance aircraft detected the Iranian submarine with its very sensitive Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) sensor array. The CBN report then commented on the full-extent of the electronic surveillance capabilities of the “Rivet Joint” aircraft by noting its sensors had also detected Iranian ballistic missile activities and shipments of these missiles to Lebanon.
In the past couple of days Israeli SOF had located an Iranian Zelzal-2 (Earthquake) short range ballistic missile (SRBM) on its launcher in Lebanon. The missile, with a maximum range of about 250 miles, was prepped and ready to launch. An immediate air strike guided by on-the-ground Israeli Special Forces laser designators was radioed in. The air strike on the missile launcher threw the Zelzal airborne momentarily and ultimately impacting the ground a very short distance away. Scratch one Zelzal. More Iranian Zelzal’s were targeted in the exact same manner as they crossed from Syria into Lebanon. When you read of or see broadcast reports of Israeli air strikes on bridges between Lebanon and Syria along the Beirut-Damascus highway and other avenues into Lebanon they are specifically intended to halt the flow of such war material. However, conservative estimates are that enemy combatants in Lebanon had at least 200 of these Iranian ballistic missiles prior to hostilities erupting.
The Current Situation Report (SITREP)
The war has the Israeli Defense Forces fully engaged, although not to the level of their entire strategic depth, but fairly close to that level. The Israeli’s are prepared for any battlefield eventuality, including the use of WMD. In fact, Israeli ground forces are about to move into southern Lebanon on a large scale combat operation to engage all enemy combatants. This may include Lebanese army forces who reportedly will side themselves with Hezbollah and IRGC forces. The Syrian military has been making moves of its own by targeting its own missile forces on Israeli targets. One can reasonably expect that this is totally unacceptable to the Israeli High Command and a pre-emptive strike against Syrian targets is an imminent probability. The point of all this is to illustrate that this war is just getting to the boiling point and its escalation to full-scale regional warfare can happen within hours or minutes of your reading this article. I suspect that this war will involve the first use of weapons of mass destruction in the near term against Israel with the resultant immediate Israeli retaliatory response directed against the Syrian capital city Damascus.
Can Israeli pre-emptive strikes against rear-echelon targets in Iran be far behind? And for how long will US and Coalition forces in the CENTCOM AO remain unengaged in the war given the Iranian strategic objectives alluded to above?
Ultimately, and with little forewarning, World War IV in all of its mass destructiveness will arrive on our shores - in the American heartland. Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, HAMAS and other various proxy stooges of all nationalities or citizenships can and will strike our apparent national ambivalence to this direct threat. The Northeast Intelligence Network has been consistently warning of this inevitability for a very long time, and I must now repeat the admonition to the whole of America: If you have not been vigilant in your local community before, you absolutely must be so engaged at this time. America is a primary target, a major military objective of Iran, its proxies and allies. Your survival depends upon the level of vigilance and preparations you may or may not have bothered to exert up to this minute. Personal responsibility, prudent planning and preparations are all that stand between you and your family, indeed your own neighborhood and region of the nation, and the war which is now in progress. God help us all.
UPDATE
This special report has resulted in an overwhelming flood of emails requesting me to define for individuals and families what I meant by being "engaged at this time". The following are my observations and recommendations in this regard.First, foremost and paraphrasing my favorite ex-Green Beret, John Moore (a/k/a The Liberty Man) :
1. The U.S. government cannot and will not protect individuals or families. Our government agencies are doing the best job they can to keep our country safe. However, no government agency (including FEMA) is responsible for a comprehensive defense program.
2. Each individual business and family must make their own preparations to be safe from the consequences of a terrorist attack.
Please consider:
a.) We have "just in time" delivery of everything from auto parts to life sustaining pharmaceuticals.
b.) Every part of our infrastructure is a potential target.
c.) A break anywhere in this infrastructure (telecommunications, transportation, utilities) can cause the whole system to fail. Consequently, every citizen is at risk to suffer the consequences of a terrorist attack happening anywhere in the country.TheLibertyMan.Com
Okay, that stated as suscinctly as possible, what do you do individually to prepare yourself, your family, your group of friends, your neighborhood?I suggest the following 8-point minimum regimen be executed ASAP in an effort to transition from a possible victim to a potential survivor:
1.) Non-perishable foodstuffs and fruit juices or reconsitutable/concentrated juices or milk for a minimum of 30 - 60 days sustainment per individual.
2.) Lot's of H2O in cases of individual servings or large bottles and 5-gallon containers. As much as you can possibly collect.
3.) A portable generator, batteries for every device in the house which may require them.
4.) Communications. Hand crank radios like the small Grundig ($20.00) sold by Radio Shack, or any battery operated solid state radio.
5.) Ammo for your personal firearm(s). Execute your Second Amendment rights. Hopefully you don't live in New Jersey as I do.
6.) Fuels: Gasoline or Diesel as you require. Get it now gas/diesel are currently at anywhere from $3.05/$2.75 per gallon. I would expect these prices will increasesubstantially in the very near term - a direct reflection of the Iranian desire for $100 per barrel crude. Fill your 5 gallon cans now if at all possible.
7.) An evacuation plan and lay-up points enroute. In case your area is particularly hard hit and an evacuation is ordered by national or state authorities, have a designated place to go and coordinated plans with fellow travellers if at all possible. Strength is found in numbers.
8.) Keep your bank account well as fed as you are able. If terrorists hit the electrical grid or if an EMP device is utilized during hostilities you will still need to pay any bills. Whatever is not in the bank have liquid as cash-on-hand. ATM's and banks will probably get swamped or could be inoperable for a short time by those who did not prudently plan or prepare ahead of time. The "snooze, you lose" mentality applies here.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and pray for personal guidance from God.Move Out and Execute as much as you are able which applies to your own situation as quickly as you can "Git R Done".
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
